Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Karl Denninger, “If Not Now, When?”

“If Not Now, When?”
by Karl Denninger

"Turn on to politics, or politics will turn on you."
- Ralph Nader

“From USA Today: ‘A slim majority of Americans say it's time for a third party because the Democratic and Republican Parties are doing such a poor job, a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll shows.’

Remember, in a three-party system you don't need 51% to win - you only need to get into the mid 30s to low 40s. So here's the question: Will this opportunity be seized or squandered? It only comes around once in a generation folks. Want to do it?  Then look at the 2012 Platform ticker I wrote.  Let's count up the votes:

    * You win all the votes of everyone who has been foreclosed upon.  Over 1 million households, which turns into ~2 million votes.  That's not a bad start; out of ~200 million in the electorate you've already got 1% in the bag.

    * You win all the votes of the people who are underwater on their mortgages and believe they got rooked in some way by the bank.  That's 25%, more or less, of all homes with mortgages.  Since about 30% of all homes are owned outright, this is a very sizable number.  Figure you can pick up another 17% of homeowners; that would be somewhere around another ten million households or roughly 20 million more votes.  We're now to 11%.

    * You win all of the unemployed voters.  That's ~7 million people officially.  How?  You make clear they will have jobs from the illegal immigrants being sent home.  Now you've got 30 million votes, and are polling 15%.

    * Pick up most of the "alternative lifestyle" folks and those sympathetic to them.  How?  Get the hell out of their bedrooms and homes.  Some of this will overlap, but not much.  Figure that's another 3% or so for GBLT folks in the population, and at least that many who will vote this issue although they're straight.  If 20% of those fit into the other categories you still grabbed another 4% or so of the electorate.  You're now approaching a 20% figure.

Note carefully: 20% of the electorate is roughly what the current political parties consider their "base."  You just took a big part of theirs from them, and you made it yours, all by seizing items they will not address.

One chance folks. Once in a generation. Will the Libertarians do it?  I'm not convinced.  I've certainly not seen evidence at a federal level that they understand how to attack this, and I'm less than convinced (although somewhat more positive) that the Florida party does.

This much I'm sure of - the other "minor parties" will not do the above.  Parties like the "Constitution Party" are nothing of the sort; they imbue the "GGG" issue as the forefront of their platform and as such lose before they begin.  A party that is in the minority and runs on polarizing issues such as this will never poll more than 1% nationally.  Ever.

2012 is the opportunity.  If it's blown, the next time around will likely be after our economy and political system hit the wall. If you're interested in seeing actual change instead of bullcrap, here's your map.  If you're going to tear it up you need to be able to show people how you'll get to the same goal without using it. I'm waiting.”

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