Sunday, November 18, 2012

The Economy: "All Hell Is About To Break Loose!"

"All Hell Is About To Break Loose!"
by InvestmentWatch
"The Worst Economic Numbers In More Than A Year: "With everything else that is going on in the world, a lot of people have failed to notice that we are seeing some of the worst economic numbers that we have seen in more than a year.  For example, it was announced on Thursday that initial claims for unemployment benefits have hit their highest level in a year and a half. Hopefully this is just a temporary blip in the data, because initial unemployment claims tend to have a very strong correlation with the overall performance of the economy.  We also continue to see poverty statistics rise.  According to government statistics released earlier this month, the number of Americans living in poverty and the number of Americans on food stamps are both at all-time record highs.  Meanwhile, the Dow and the S&P 500 are both down more than 5 percent since the election and the U.S. government rolled up 22 billion dollars more debt in October 2012 than it did in October 2011.  The unfortunate truth is that things are not getting better.  The U.S. economy continues to become weaker and more unstable, and there are a whole lot of reasons to be very pessimistic about our economic situation as we move into the winter months."
From John Williams: "October Year-to-Year inflation at 9.8%.
- Official Real Retail Sales Signal Recession
- Storm’s Impact on October Activity Was Mixed
- Official Real Earnings Sink to Four-Year Low,Down 2.7% Year-to-Year
- Annual Consumer and Wholesale Inflation Continue to Rise
- October Year-to-Year Inflation: 2.2% (CPI-U), 2.2% (CPI-W), 9.8% (SGS)"
From Jim Sinclair: "Gold will trade at $3500 and beyond. The US dollar will test USDX $7200 before heading lower. Whatever is required, be it time or money, the Euro nations will get. The Fed will, via swaps, backstop the euro. QE will go to infinity both here and there. The Chinese have publicly said when the gold market takes a hit they will be buying. Calm down. Emotions are being run by machines, HFT and nerds who hide behind their computer. They will not win. All hell is going to break loose, and its name is Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation."
From MarketWatch: "Banks told by Fed to test for 12% unemployment: The Federal Reserve is asking 30 big banks to make sure their capital can withstand a deep recession in which the unemployment rate rises to 12%."
From Forbes: "Obama’s Real Unemployment Rate Is 14.7%, And A Recession’s On The Way"
"Half of U.S. families are on food stamps. Half of U.S. families live below the poverty line. Officially, half of the country is directly supporting the other half through taxpayer funded federal subsidies. They are expecting worse than this."
From Townhall: "Half of American Households Living on Government Benefits: Some astoundingly grim news on the “economic recovery” front: half of American households are receiving government funds to support themselves. No matter which way you slice it, this number isn’t good news for the Obama administration — they can spin the jobs numbers by ignoring the number of people who dropped out of the workforce, but this statistic is pretty straightforward. The 49.1% of the population in a household that gets benefits is up from 30% in the early 1980s and 44.4% as recently as the third quarter of 2008."
From CBS: "U.S. Poverty Rate Spikes, Nearly 50 Million Americans Affected: As President Barack Obama is set to begin his second term, new statistics on America’s poverty rate indicate that nearly 50 million Americans, more than 16 percent of the population, are struggling to survive. New figures released by the Census Bureau this week found a spike in poverty numbers last year, going from 49 million in 2010 to 49.7 million last year. The numbers may come as a surprise to Congress, which estimated in September that the poverty rate would drop to 46.2 million. One of the most startling findings showed that almost 20 percent of American children continue to live in poverty."
From BusinessInsider: "The Solution To The Fiscal Cliff Will Be Another Fiscal Cliff: In his latest US Macro Dashboard note, Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Vincent Reinhart nicely states the insane nature of policymaking in America right now. “As for substance, the sequence most talked about is patch and promise, followed by a plan.  The patch would be stop-gap legislation extending most features of the current system accompanied by the promise of significant ten-year budget reduction legislated by a certain date later in 2013.  In that regard, politicians’ solution to the 2012 fiscal cliff will be to create another one in 2013.  Thus, only a portion of the uncertainty about policy will be resolved by the patch and promise, as much could go wrong with the plan.” Of course, the existence of the 2012 cliff is a hangover from the 2011 debt ceiling negotiations, and the 2010 Bush tax cut expiration negotiations."

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