"Winter Is Coming", Part 2
by Jim Quinn
“Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning the way you might today distance yourself from news, national politics, or even taxes you don’t feel like paying. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted. The Fourth Turning necessitates the death and rebirth of the social order. It is the ultimate rite of passage for an entire people, requiring a luminal state of sheer chaos whose nature and duration no one can predict in advance.” – Strauss & Howe, "The Fourth Turning"
"In Part One of this article I laid out the reasons for Gray Champions arising to meet challenges during crisis periods in history. We are ten years into this Crisis and I have been pondering where we go from here. The plot line of the Game of Thrones has opened my eyes to the fact there isn’t just one Gray Champion during a Fourth Turning. During the Civil War, Jefferson Davis and Robert E. Lee were Transcendental prophet generation representatives of the Confederacy. Abraham Lincoln and William Tecumseh Sherman were Gray Champions of the Union.
These were men who would do anything to further their cause, from ordering thousands of men to their deaths on Cemetery Ridge, to burning down cities, to suspending the writ of Habeas Corpus, and seceding from the Union. They were destined to brandish their terrible swift swords in achieving total indisputable victory. But, we know only one side could win.
During the World War II/Great Depression crisis FDR is known as the Gray Champion who took drastic measures on the economic front with his New Deal and sent 16 million young men into battle on a scale never seen in history. Douglass MacArthur commanded many of those men in battles to the death across the Pacific. What is less discussed is the fact Winston Churchill and Joseph Stalin were also members of the Missionary prophet generation and were the Gray Champions of their nations.
Churchill defied all odds in holding out during the darkest hours and showed no mercy in bombing Germany into submission when he gained the upper hand. Stalin, a man who had slaughtered millions during his purges, was willing to sacrifice millions more to halt Hitler from conquering his country. The alliance of these three Gray Champions virtually assured victory for the Allies in World War II. An epic crisis required unyielding men to face the challenges without blinking – resulting in the deaths of 65 million people.
Gray Champions are not necessarily good, admirable, or moral. Most have narcissistic tendencies and have at least as many enemies as allies. All of the men I’ve named were deeply flawed and in some cases malevolent. What they all had in common was tremendous confidence in their own abilities and an unbreakable determination to achieve the outcomes they desired. Winning was all that mattered to these men.
Americans, blinded by their normalcy bias, never see a Fourth Turning until it arrives with fire and fury. When it arrives, many want to turn back time to the glorious days of spring or summer, but it is not to be. Winter is upon us and even though we wish a Gray Champion wasn’t needed, come he must and come he will. And they won’t be asking for the opinions of the sheep before taking control.
“A lion does not concern himself with the opinion of sheep.”
– Tywin, "Game of Thrones"
During the last Fourth Turning, the three Gray Champion leaders (FDR, Churchill, Stalin) were all on the same side. They were strong willed and had violent disagreement at times, but they all had the same immediate goal – defeating the Axis Powers. I had been focusing on Trump as the sole Gray Champion, but hadn’t considered other Gray Champion leaders who may have a major impact during this Fourth Turning.
Two powerful dictators – Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping – are also Prophet Generation leaders who are ruthless, unyielding, shrewd, and most important, strident nationalists. These men rule their countries with an iron fist and do not blink when faced with challenges from other nations. They are powerful men with large egos who cast large shadows on the world stage. Opponents are terminated with extreme prejudice in Russia and China. They do not operate under the same moral standards as non-authoritarian nations. The legacies of Stalin and Mao run deep in their countries.
“Power resides where men believe it resides. It’s a trick, a shadow on the wall.
And a very small man can cast a very large shadow.”
– Lord Varys, "Game of Thrones"
This alignment of Gray Champion leaders is significantly dissimilar to the World War II alliance. Trump is the more powerful rival of the other two, but is hog tied by domestic opposition on many fronts. All three of these leaders are facing financial, demographic, domestic, and military challenges, creating tensions within their countries and internationally. Putin and Jinping have been pushed towards greater cooperation as Trump and the American Empire have used their economic and military power to intimidate and provoke both of these nuclear powers.
There is already an undeclared currency, resource and financial war being waged between Russia, China and the U.S. Proxy conflicts in the Middle East and relentless tensions on the Korea Peninsula have heated up in the last year. The current Wag the Dog scenario playing out in Syria has further alienated the voices of reason within the U.S., Russia and China. The threat of a real shooting war between these nuclear powers is the highest in decades. These three Gray Champions are vying for dominance on the world stage. There will be winners and losers.
“When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.
There is no middle ground.”
– Cersei, "Game of Thrones"
The American Empire has dominated the world stage since the end of World War II. There were no economic or military rivals over many decades, except for the corrupt and ultimately bankrupt Soviet Union. Its demise left the U.S. as the only major power standing. But arrogance, hubris, debasement of its currency, military overreach, and endemic corruption have, like an unrelenting disease, weakened the empire and made it susceptible to new rivals.
The global chaos and disorder being created around the globe by the teetering American Empire, flailing about in its extended death throes, is accelerating rapidly and setting the stage for the inevitable bloody Fourth Turning conflict. There will be no compromise or diplomatic resolution of this war for control of the 21st century. We are witnessing a modern day version of the Game of Thrones. There are many “kings” vying for the throne as leader of the world, but only one can win. Intrigue, broken alliances, back stabbing, military conquest, secret deals, and eventually bloody struggles will decide the victor. There will be no happy endings.
“If you think this has a happy ending, you haven’t been paying attention.”
– Ramsay, "Game of Thrones"
Further complicating this Fourth Turning for our Gray Champion Trump are a couple other Gray Champions opposing him on the domestic front. Hillary Clinton and Robert Mueller are also prophet generation figures who continue to dog Trump, making his everyday existence a non-stop twitter battle for his presidency. Despite losing the election, and going away like most losers, Clinton is on a perpetual speaking tour raking in millions while trashing Trump on a daily basis.
Mueller appears to be the tool by which the Deep State insiders are attempting a coup to bring down Trump by any means necessary. There is a daily litany of indictments, FBI raids, leaked documents, bimbo eruptions, tell all books, exclusive interviews by the propaganda media of traitorous scum like Clapper, Brennan and Comey, and the accusations and counter accusations between Trump and his foes. Trump is learning a hard lesson from the Game of Thrones.
“I swear to you, sitting a throne is a thousand times harder than winning one.”
– King Robert Baratheon – George R.R. Martin, "Game of Thrones"
The current configuration of foreign and domestic Gray Champions does not bode well for the second half of this Fourth Turning. But it does support the dynamics driving this Fourth Turning – debt, civic decay, and global disorder. The reason the American Empire is in terminal decline is the unpayable trillions in debt and unfunded promises made by corrupt politicians destined to bankrupt the country. That which is unsustainable will not be sustained.
This unsustainable fiscal condition is driving the irrational desperate actions of the Wall Street controlled Federal Reserve, the production of fake economic data to keep the ignorant masses sedated, and the rigging of markets to boost the wealth of the billionaire class while throwing the average family under the bus. There is nothing normal about the frantic flailing attempts to keep this empire of debt from collapsing. All actions by politicians, government apparatchiks, the military industrial complex and central bankers must be viewed through this lens of reality.
The Deep State invisible government is apoplectic at their imminent demise and is using every tool in their deceptive repertoire to maintain their power, control and wealth. Utilization of surveillance state assets, false flags, fake news propaganda, blackmail, bought off “experts”, rigged financial markets, creating foreign enemy bogeymen and banking cabal machinations have pushed the world towards global conflict. And that is what they want. War is good business and further enriches the Deep State. We are just cannon fodder to them.
The seething hatred permeating American society with left wing social justice warrior nutjobs on one side and bloodthirsty warmongering neocon Nazis on the other, leaves no room for compromise or common ground. The vast majority of the American populace is either blissfully ignorant or delusional when it comes to the hard truths facing the nation.
The Deep State funds the ongoing civic decay in order to keep the public distracted by inconsequential social issues. Fantasizing about a savior coming to the rescue and singlehandedly solving our problems is wishful thinking. Denial is not a plan. It is time to face the hard truths."
“Most men would rather deny a hard truth than face it.”
– Tyrion Lannister – George R.R. Martin, "Game of Thrones"
"In Part Three I will attempt to make some sense of the seemingly indecipherable events happening on a daily basis and try to peer through the fog to get a glimpse of the future. Will it be a boot stamping on our faces forever or a new Spring dawning across our land?"