Monday, June 28, 2010

BP Gulf Disaster: "A Hair-raising Real-life Scenario"

"A Hair-raising Real-life Scenario"
By Ramesh Balan

"The world’s scientific community has so far not come up with a minimal-risk solution to plug the giant underwater gusher spreading oil across the northern Gulf of Mexico and threatening to poison, in the worst-case scenario, all the oceans across the world. The spill is getting progressively more serious by the day and alarmed oil-drilling experts fear that doomsday could be only days away if any one of the rudimentary efforts to plug or contain the leak backfires and causes a sea floor collapse.

The challenge of plugging the leak is beyond all the technological know how and experience mankind has today. What we have is a hole in the ocean floor 5,000 feet (1,524 meters) underwater and about 160 km offshore, which has been spewing unchecked as much as 60,000 barrels a day since April 20. (BP executives reportedly gave US lawmakers this revised higher figure last week, much higher that their initial estimate of 5,000 b/d.)

BP was attempting to access deep oil “right on the edge of what human technology can do,” when the catastrophe occurred. They went down about 5,000 feet (1,524m) deep, drilled another 30,000 feet (9,144m) into the crust of the earth, and hit an oil-gas pocket of such high pressure that it burst all the safety valves right up to the surface, causing the three-to-four-acre-large drilling rig to explode and sink. Eleven crew members on the rig were killed in the blowout. The rig, Deepwater Horizon, was leased by BP from Transocean. Halliburton was doing the deepwater work.

Experts fear that we’re facing possibly the greatest disaster mankind will ever see. Stopping the spill will take a spectacular feat of engineering, especially since it entails going down 5,000 feet underwater where the very high pressure environment “in the blackness of inner space” is not familiar territory for technological feats.

The deposit is said to be either the largest or the second largest oil deposit ever found, capable of producing 500,000 b/d for 10 or 15 years. It is massive, covering an offshore area of something like 25,000 square miles (64,750 sq.km). One blogger said Natural Gas and Oil is already tapping into the deposit from as far inland as Central Alabama and way over into Florida and even over to Louisiana as almost as far as Texas. The deposit’s natural gas component is reportedly estimated at 10,000 times its oil content. Its central pressure is said to be 165,000-170,000 PSI. In short, it’s a huge bomb in the nucleus of the earth. That’s why BP can’t blow up the leak-site with torpedoes or nuclear weapons as some people have suggested in the hope of sealing up the hole."
- http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/

"Analysis of Gulf Oil Spill"
by SHR

"Oil as it comes up from the earth is not exactly "clean," in fact it has a fair amount of crud in it- sand, hydrocarbons, other solids- and these impurities, they are abrasive, just like sand paper, or more like a "Sand blaster" in this case. So this abrasive mix of oil, crud and gas is rushing through the steel tubing and the machinery of the BOP under enormous virtually inexhaustible pressure, and it's chewing away the steel pipes and parts that are holding it back from rushing more. Wherever there is a kink or something in the way there is the force of the abrasive fluid slowly eating it, wearing it away, same for whatever leak that has high pressure fluid blasting through it, which may not be the ones you see, but ones inside what is left of the pipes that the fluid is really shooting out of or past.

So the "Leaks" get bigger because they are being eroded away. When that happens more fluid gushes past and they get eaten more, the faster it can leak, the more it will eat, the more it chews away, the faster it goes like a dam made of ice slowly but surely melting, and it will eventually go faster and faster until all the parts are worn thin enough that they will fail and explode off and the gusher will be more and more open until it's wide open, no restrictions. THAT is inevitable, it WILL happen if this well cannot be stopped from flowing, it is only a matter of time and how much time is only a guess, but one thing that is certain, it will continue to gush more and more until it does eat everything away and is wide open.

Right now there are guesses as to how much flow is actually gushing out, but suffice to say it's a lot. There are figures from 5,000 Barrels Per Day to 100,000 BPD. Some are from video analysis of the "Plume video", some are from surface area calculations of the "Seen oil" slick, but even BP says they are all just guesses and even they are not sure. But take for example a low range number, like 10,000 BPD. Next week it will be 15,000 BPD,+5k. Next 25,000 BPD,+10. Next 40,000BPD, +15, and will increase in a geometric progression until it is wide open. Estimates of that wide open flow rate are also guesses but IMO it could easily be 100,000 BPD if it blows out completely, and IT WILL BLOW OUT COMPLETELY if it cannot be halted or if for some reason nature slows or stops, which is highly highly unlikely. Behind every restriction the pressure is greater than in front of it. Just like your garden hose swells up behind a kink, this is no different, so when that restriction blows away the flow will increase greatly.

That is what they are up against, a broken bop tower attached to the well head, a leaky bent pipe coming out of that, and a "corrosive" (abrasive) fluid under high pressure shooting out the leaks and eating it all away at the same time. The clock is truly ticking and the erosion of the components will not and cannot be stopped as long as it's flowing.

BP knows they have they have a ticking time bomb, and how many ticks we get is only a guess, but they are well aware that is a finite number, and it's counting down unrelentingly 24/7. If you noticed, BP had the BOP's brain removed. There is a reason for this, and believe me when I tell you this is their number one priority mission and all these sucker domes are more to make regular people feel good about less oil leakage, Yay! save Flipper and tippy the turtle! But they are not the Alpha priority for the engineers whom are well aware that a far greater and inevitable danger looms. Maybe why these measures seem half assed to us, likely because they are, and ultimately even if they did work they wouldn't have anything left to work on for long because the riser pipe is going to be blown off the blow out protector and there won't be any oil shooting out the pipe laying on the sea bed because it will no longer be attached to the well. BP has plenty of manpower and money so they can throw some at those things and it will make people glad to see that they are doing something, but that's all it is, the real mission is a technological challenge and is taking some time to setup. So if we all saw nothing happening people would be berserk by now, so you get some candy while you wait for the real thing.

That's it guys, it's all we got and the situation is dire. Aside from the extreme possibles like exploding a massive charge to crush the thing closed, and THAT IS being discussed, if it takes an atomic bomb to do it we may very well face a situation THAT desperate. This thing is an almost unimaginably powerful monster that we have just stabbed with a knife and spit in the face of, and it's in a very weak cage, it doesn't sleep, it doesn't need to eat and it only gets stronger and more fierce as time goes by, it's going berserk and it's wrecking it's cage, tearing at it, screaming, bolts starting to pop loose and it's not going stop smashing and bashing anytime soon. Oh, and btw, someone just handcuffed you to the bars and you cannot get away now.

I say this because the amount, the insane volumes, of gas and oil that could be released if this thing blows apart are truly of nightmare proportions. This one isn't in the south western gulf like the IXTOC blowout was. The GOM is sort of separated into two portions and the western side is sort of trapped. The Eastern side is not and the "Loop current" which connects to the "Gulf Stream" flows right through this side. It will carry the oil spillage out into the Gulf stream and all the way up the eastern seaboard all the way to the UK and Europe where it ends. There will be who knows how many cubic feet of gas released into the atmosphere and the surrounding area with an untold amount of toxins. The economic implications are dire, the fishing industry annihilated, beaches and tourism to them destroyed. And who knows what other effects there will be. It's a very very bad disaster to say the least, it's bad enough NOW, and THIS IS NOTHING COMPARED TO WHAT MAY HAPPEN, and WILL HAPPEN if they cannot stop this thing. You must get your head around that, nothing will stop this from blowing apart and going wide open if the rush of fluids cannot be halted, it is a CERTAINTY.

It's beyond our control as regular citizens really. We ALL should be screaming at our leaders that we do realize the consequences and to take this seriously, and I mean like War footing seriously, because it could get that bad. We can and should be aware of the historic nature of this thing because it IS being downplayed in the media. It could create mass panic if people really knew, and it still might if it does blow apart because there won't be any booms, any sucker hats or tubes or anything else that is going to do jack shit to stop it. It'll be like trying to blow a tidal wave away with a soda straw and everyone become well aware of just how weak and puny Man is compared to the forces of nature. If the well does cut loose we are talking thousands and thousands of square miles of toxic crud. I'm not even sure the well drilling rigs would even be able to operate in the area...a massive rush of gas can sink ships...the gas is not breathable and it's explosive too. One thunder storm comes by and a lightning strike- BOOM. I'm sure the men working there realize they are probably in one the most hazardous work zones they have ever been in. I don't think it's an ELE or something of that order, but we don't need to be wiped out to be stuck enjoying a giant bowl of SUCK for a very long time.

And all the while the wear out, blow apart countdown timer is ticking away on a huge time bomb that WILL go off, but no one knows when, and they are racing against it and it never stops ticking away. I truly hope we win that race. I am telling you all this so that you will understand what we face, and also so that if you live near the Gulf you can make preparations for the possibilities, which could be incredibly bad, panic evacs or just plain mass panic, badass noxious fumes or worse. I guarantee that NO ONE knows for sure."
- http://www.theflucase.com/

Folks, I'm deadly serious. You do what you like, but if I lived anywhere near
the Gulf Coast I'd be driving north right now, as fast as I could. - CP

5 comments:

  1. Solid credentials, bro. You listed Starmaker by Olaf Stapledon as your favorite book! Just took a quick look in here and I can already feel the human warmth and an incandescent intelligence at work. In lak'ech!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Welcome, brother Antares! In Lak'ech Ala K'in. Delighted for you to be here, make yourself at home.

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  3. I live in central Florida now. I lived in Yuma, Arizona for four years but decided to get away from the San Andreas! Pretty smart planning.

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    http://zippittydodah.blogspot.com/2009/10/rise-of-stupids-and-fall-of-rome.html

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    http://smokingmirrors.blogspot.com/2010_05_01_archive.html

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  4. Excellent blog CoyotePrime. I followed over from Dublin Mick’s place. Intelligent commentary & science in the same place!

    If you don’t mind I’ll pop by more often.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Welcome, Dublin Mick and chuckyman, thanks for stopping by and commenting. Great links, Dublin Mick, many thanks. Make yourself at home, folks, glad you're here.

    ReplyDelete